Anwar’s Battle Against Allies Shapes Up as Key Malaysian States Call Polls

rv1x]kt3yq5yf9uygn6}req2_media_dl_1.png Parliament of Malaysia

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(Bloomberg) — Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim’s grip on power is set to be tested as he prepares to face off against his erstwhile allies, with his party’s urban base in play in two upcoming state elections. 

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Anwar’s Pakatan Harapan and Barisan Nasional joined forces to form a unity government after the 2022 election produced a hung parliament, but the two coalitions are expected to go head-to-head in the states of Negeri Sembilan and Johor — two booming economies with large pockets of urban voters that have traditionally been Anwar’s strongholds.

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The leaders of both states this week moved to dissolve their assemblies and call new elections, which are expected by August. 

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The upcoming battles are eroding any chance that the two major groups work together in the next national election, scrambling the coalition math for Anwar in a country where no party is expected to win a majority. The two are the biggest members of the 153-member bloc that controls parliament now. 

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“The door to electoral cooperation is almost closed, short of being locked,” said Asrul Sani, associate vice president at The Asia Group. “They sit in the same government, but electorally are moving in different directions.”

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Although the next national elections aren’t scheduled until 2028, Anwar has signaled he might call snap polls this year as political pressures build. That sets the stage for a flurry of election activity that will restructure the Malaysian government at a time of heightened uncertainty in the global economy and surging oil prices.

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The biggest party in Barisan Nasional — United Malays National Organisation, or UMNO — wants to defend its control of the southern state of Johor with its own coalition, having won handsomely there in early 2022, before it joined Anwar’s government. 

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After UMNO made those intentions clear, Anwar’s Pakatan Harapan followed suit by announcing it would defend its state control of Negeri Sembilan by also contesting solo.  

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That lack of cooperation with his federal ally will present Anwar with an “uphill battle” in Negeri Sembilan, where his coalition won in 2023 with cooperation from UMNO, said Adib Zalkapli, the founder of Viewfinder Global Affairs, a geopolitical risk consultancy. 

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“It will be a difficult campaign for Pakatan Harapan in both states,” he said. Anwar’s Pakatan Harapan “is not only facing a more energized UMNO, but is also dealing with growing political fatigue and disappointment among its own supporters. It is entering elections from a weaker position.”

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A strong showing in both state polls would only bolster the argument for Barisan Nasional contesting the federal elections against Pakatan Harapan, Adib said. 

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Over the past year, Anwar has faced an opposition-led protest demanding his ouster while his coalition performed poorly in November’s Sabah state elections, a slide in fortunes since his approval rating climbed to 55% last June in a Merdeka Center poll.