Analyst reveals incredible reason Chiefs will hit the over in 2026 win projection

The Kansas City Chiefs will be one of the most-watched teams this offseason as Andy Reid and his coaching staff figure out how they will navigate things after missing the playoffs for the first time in the Patrick Mahomes era.

With the Chiefs having more time than usual to go over the roster and find weaknesses, there is a thought that Kansas City's 2025 season was a simple blip on the radar, and not a sign of this ship sinking.

And for FS1's Nick Wright, while he predicts Mahomes to be ready for Week 1, he knows there's a chance he might not return until Week 6, but with Kansas City's win projection set at 10.5 in 2026, he's going the over.

“I believe Patrick Mahomes is gonna be dancing at Travis Kelce’s wedding and is gonna be starting for the Chiefs in Week 1 and so I will go with the over for the now, all of a sudden, hunters," Wright said on First Things First.

More: ESPN analyst proposes blockbuster Lions trade for $160 million superstar

Chiefs success hinges on Mahomes' recovery

It is really simple when you think about it.

If Mahomes comes back and is starting Week 1, which means he will have had a good block of training camp to get up to speed, then yes, the over on 10.5 wins seems feasible.

Alternatively, if Mahomes, as Wright suggested, is out until Week 6, that changes things drastically.

Right now, all the eggs are in the "hope" basket for Patrick, and as the months go by, we'll get a better indication of how he's shaping up for Week 1.

And if he is starting, the Chiefs will be a vastly different proposition in 2026 than if he returns after the first month.

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