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There are some things we know about the Toronto Maple Leafs and their first-round draft pick this summer.
The Maple Leafs could draft first overall if they win the draft lottery. They could also draft second-overall if they win the second lottery for the second pick. They could also draft fifth overall if all teams with a worse record than Toronto stay in their draft spot.
The worst-case scenario for Toronto is a team with a better record than the Leafs winning either the first or second pick in the lottery. That would push Toronto into sixth or seventh overall in the draft, and that would mean the Maple Leafs’ pick would be shuttled to the Boston Bruins as payment for last season’s trade that made defenseman Brandon Carlo a Leaf.
But for argument’s sake, let’s presume Toronto hangs onto its first-rounder this year. If the Leafs do retain their pick, they should have a very good idea of who they’ll be picking.
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If they get the first or second-overall pick, they’ll either get standout NCAA forward Gavin McKenna or Swedish star winger Ivar Stenberg. But here’s where it gets interesting: if the Maple Leafs wind up with the fifth-overall pick, they’re going to have a major philosophical choice to make.
Many current mock drafts have four prospect defensemen in the area of the third-overall through the seventh-overall picks – Ontario League blueliner Chase Reid, NCAA D-man Keaton Verhoeff, Western League defenseman Carson Carels and Latvian blueliner Alberts Smits. But also in that top-five mix is OHL center Caleb Malhotra – the son of former NHLer and former Maple Leafs assistant coach Manny Malhotra.
Thus, if you’re the Leafs and you’re picking fifth-overall, do you go with the best forward available in Malhotra, or is it time the Leafs drafted by need, and choose one of Reid, Verhoeff, Carels or Smits? All four of those defensemen have the size and all-around game that Toronto needs more of from its defensemen. Although there’s always a degree of risk you take on when you’re projecting what a young D-man is capable of, you also are rarely, if ever, going to acquire an elite young defenseman unless you do so through the draft.
So, while the Maple Leafs also could certainly use the help down the middle that Malhotra would deliver, you can make the argument it’s easier to find difference-making help up front than it is to find D-men who will be fixtures for you over the course of the next decade-and-a-half or longer.
Indeed, you can also make the argument that the biggest piece of the puzzle the Leafs have been lacking over the years is a needle-moving defenseman. They thought they had that in Morgan Rielly, but he hasn’t ascended to be a Norris Trophy candidate as the NHL’s best defenseman in quite some time. And nobody else in the Leafs’ development system has even come close to Rielly, let alone been better than him.
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And yes, we’re well aware Toronto has OHLer Ben Danford in the pipeline. But Danford is not projected to be a difference-maker the way the NHL’s true top defensemen are.
The default cliché that NHL management types give to the public around draft time is that they always draft based on talent, not on positional need. However, a realistic appraisal of where the Leafs are in their competitive cycle makes it obvious – this team desperately needs an elite player on the back end. And if that means choosing a D-man instead of a talented center, so be it.
Teams with elite defensemen are usually the ones that win Stanley Cups. The Colorado Avalanche won a championship in part because they had star blueliner Cale Makar. The Tampa Bay Lightning won in part because they had elite D-man Victor Hedman. The Florida Panthers won in part because they had former No. 1-overall defenseman Aaron Ekblad, and the Vegas Golden Knights won in part because they had top defenseman Alex Pietrangelo.
It’s no coincidence that those teams were successful because they employed game-changing D-men. They needed more than that, but without those defensemen, those teams would be where Toronto is – full of regrets and disappointment.
Thus, don’t let anyone tell you it doesn’t matter whether the Leafs go with Malhotra with the fifth-overall pick, or whether they spend the pick on a defenseman. The right choice for Toronto this year is a blueliner.
All things considered, the Maple Leafs’ best-case scenario is to come away with Stenberg or McKenna. But if that doesn’t happen, the Buds need to address their biggest need – and that’s on ‘D’.
The Leafs may not get a better opportunity to acquire an elite defenseman than they’ll have in this draft. They must make the most of their pick at fifth-overall by choosing a blueliner.
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