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Alabama and LSU finished 9-4 in 2024.
Four losses? The Crimson Tide had not lost four games since Nick Saban's first season in 2007. The Tigers have lost four or more games in five of the last eight seasons.
That is going to put pressure on Kalen DeBoer and Brian Kelly heading into the 2025 college football season. Do you believe in the Crimson Tide? What about the Tigers? Opinions vary, and those two are among the boom-or-bust teams for next season.
Sporting News released its Way-Too-Early Top 25 for 2024, but we also looked at other sites to see how their rankings looked. That list includes 247Sports.com, Action Network, Athlon, The Athletic, Bleacher Report, CBS Sports, ESPN, Sports Illustrated, USA Today Yahoo Sports and On3.com.
We looked for high variance among the publications -- the difference between being ranked high on one publication and much lower on another – and we found five schools with a variance of 17 spots or more. That certainly means opinions vary.
Alabama and LSU fit that description, but so do a few other schools. Here are five schools that might win their Power 4 conference. Or they might lose four games or more. That is a boom-or-bust team by definition.
MORE: Ten storylines for the 2025 college football season
College football boom-or-bust teams for 2025
Alabama Crimson Tide
Composite rank: No. 9. The Crimson Tide were ranked as high as No. 3 (USA Today) and were ranked as low as No. 23 (Action Network). That is a variance of 20 spots.
Lowdown: Sporting News has Alabama at No. 8 – so we are near the composite mark. There will be more pressure on DeBoer in Year 2 to at least make the College Football Playoff. Ty Simpson will get his shot at quarterback, and the receiving corps is excellent with Ryan Wiliams, Gemie Bernard and Miami transfer Isaiah Horton, who had 616 yards and five TDs last season. The defense returns several playmakers, including Tim Keenan, from a unit that allowed 17.4 points per game last season. The first month of the season features matchups against Florida State (Aug. 30), Wisconsin (Sept. 13) and a road trip to Georgia (Sept. 27). Imagine if Alabama somehow loses two of those games.
Miami Hurricanes
Composite rank: No. 11. The Hurricanes were ranked as high as No. 3 (CBS Sports) and were ranked as low as No. 23 (ESPN). That is a variance of 20 spots.
Lowdown: Sporting News has Miami at No. 10. The Hurricanes were on this boom-or-bust list last year, and they kind of straddled the line. Yes, Miami won 10 games and Cam Ward emerged as a Heisman Trophy finalist, but they also lost three of their last four games. Where will Mario Cristobal take this team next? Miami was active in the transfer portal, and Georgia quarterback Carson Beck was the prize. Will Beck thrive in the ACC? Early home games against Notre Dame (Aug. 30) and Florida (Sept. 20) are coin-flip matchups, so the boom-or-bust label fits.
LSU Tigers
Composite rank: No. 8. The Tigers were ranked as high as No. 4 (The Athletic) and were ranked as low as No. 22 (Yahoo Sports). That is a variance of 18 spots.
Lowdown: Sporting News has LSU at No. 9. The Tigers also were on this list last year, and they had ups-and-downs in Kelly's third season. Will Year 4 be different? Garrett Nussmeier returns at quarterback, and the Tigers added the top transfer portal haul according to 247Sports.com. Linebacker Whit Weeks is back on an improved defense that allowed 24.3 points per game. Let's start with the opener. Kelly will try to halt the Tigers' streak of five consecutive losses in their opener, and that won't be easy at Clemson (Aug. 30). The SEC schedule is loaded, too.
Illinois Fighting Illini
Composite rank: No. 14. The Illini were ranked as high as No. 7 (On3.com) and were ranked as low as No. 24 (247Sports.com). That is a variance of 17 spots.
Lowdown: Sporting News has Illinois at No. 13 – another team we hit the composite mark on. Bret Bielema has monitored the top 25 polls on X – and with a good reason. Illinois returns a lot of production from a 10-win team, and quarterback Luke Altmyer, leading rushers Josh McCray and Aidan Loughery and a veteran offensive line. The defense returns Gabe Jacas and Matthew Bailey. USC (Sept. 27) and Ohio State (Oct. 11) both come to Memorial Stadium, where the Illini were 6-1 this season. The Big Ten opener at Indiana (Sept. 20) will be a tell-all to see if this is real.
BYU Cougars
Composite rank: No. 16. The Cougars were ranked as high as No. 9 (ESPN) and were left unranked by 247Sports.com. That is a variance of at least 17 spots.
Lowdown: Sporting News has BYU at No. 16 – right on the composite mark. The Cougars are the second-highest ranked Big 12 team. Quarterback Jake Retzlaff and running back LJ Martin return to a team that scored 31.2 points per game, and the defense returns linebackers Isaiah Glasker and Harrison Taggart. BYU started 9-0 and won 11 games in 2024 – so this high variance is a little bit of a surprise knowing they will be among the favorites in the Big 12. The non-conference schedule is Portland State, Stanford and East Carolina. That will be picked apart throughout the season.
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