ACM Awards 2026 Predictions: Who Will Take Home Top Honors?

Nominees:

Luke Combs

Jelly Roll

Cody Johnson

Megan Moroney

Chris Stapleton

Morgan Wallen

Lainey Wilson

Newman: If Wilson wins, she will become the first woman to win consecutively three times. She faces extremely stiff competition from all the nominees, but especially from both Combs and Wallen who are global stadium acts yet have not won despite multiple nominations. It’s a testament to the speed with which Moroney has ascended and how highly she is regarded that she’s nominated here, but she’s a longshot. 

Winner: Morgan Wallen

Nicholson: Wilson is the reigning winner in this category and has kept up a solid pace of milestones in the past year, including the release of her Netflix documentary. Meanwhile, Jelly Roll, Wallen, Combs, Johnson and Stapleton have all spearheaded top tours over the past year and Moroney has ascended to headlining arenas and earned her first Billboard 200-topping album with Cloud 9. Given that Combs just released his Billboard Top Country Albums-topping album The Way I Am and continues to spearhead his stadium-level tour, look for Combs to take home his first win.

Winner: Luke Combs

Nominees:

Kelsea Ballerini

Miranda Lambert

Ella Langley

Megan Moroney

Lainey Wilson

Newman: Wilson could extend her winning streak to four wins in a row, and it’s good to see Lambert, who has won the title more than any other artist, back here after being omitted the past two years. However, this feels like a race between country music’s two newest stars, Langley and Moroney. Langley wins by a nose.

Winner: Ella Langley

Nicholson: This is a stacked category this year, as women again lead for overall number of ACM nominations. Wilson is the reigning winner in this category and has taken it home three consecutive years. However, Langley is on a powerhouse streak right now, thanks to her Billboard 200-topping album Dandelion and her Hot 100 juggernaut “Choosin’ Texas,” while Moroney’s Cloud 9 also topped the Billboard 200 this year. Each artist has had a stellar past year, but it feels like Langley seems to have the wind in her sails right now.

Winner: Ella Langley

Nominees:

Luke Combs

Riley Green

Cody Johnson

Chris Stapleton

Zach Top

Newman: It’s a little shocking that Morgan Wallen was left out here. It’s similarly stunning that Combs has only won once and Johnson has never won. Although it’s not quite so surprising when reminded they are competing against Stapleton, who has won five times previously, and is one of the best singers not just in country but in any genre. Green and Top get their first nomination here in what is probably the toughest category. We think it’s going to be a night to herald new talent, though we’re happy with any of these five gentlemen taking the trophy home.

Winner: Zach Top

Nicholson: Each nominee in the category has had a top year, with Green earning a Country Airplay hit with “Don’t Mind If I Do” (with Ella Langley) and making forays into being a multi-media star. Combs released a top album and continues to be a top-tier stadium draw. Johnson just notched his most recent No. 1 with “The Fall” and continues to headline to sold-out crowds. Reigning winner Stapleton, who has won in this category five times (this is his 11th nomination in the category), also puts up some stiff competition in the category. Meanwhile, Zach Top earned a top 20 Country Airplay hit with “Good Times and Tan Lines,” and released the album Top Country Albums top 5 Ain’t In It For My Health. However, this just might be Johnson’s year to take home the win.

Winner: Cody Johnson

Nominees:

49 Winchester

Flatland Cavalry

Old Dominion

Rascal Flatts

The Red Clay Strays

Newman: Old Dominion has won eight times, only slightly besting Rascal Flatts, who have taken home seven trophies. As with many categories, there’s some great new blood who are broadening country’ sound competing with the veterans this year. This is a toss-up between Old Dominion and The Red Clay Strays, who took home the award at the CMA Awards in November.

Winner: The Red Clay Strays

Nicholson: Seasoned winners of the category Old Dominion and Rascal Flatts are up against an influx of newer nominees with The Red Clay Strays, Flatland Cavalry and 49 Winchester. Old Dominion took this award home last year, but look for The Red Clay Strays to potentially upend that winning streak.

Winner: The Red Clay Strays

Nominees:

Brooks & Dunn

Brothers Osborne

Dan + Shay

Muscadine Bloodline

Thelma & James

Newman: Reigning champs Brooks & Dunn have won in this category more times (17) than any other duo, but they face strong competition from Dan + Shay and Brothers Osborne, both of whom are multiple winners as well. Muscadine Bloodline are beloved, but not particularly seen as country (then again, neither are the Red Clay Strays, even by their own admission) and married duo Thelma & James just haven’t had enough time to make an impact. 

Winner: Dan + Shay

Nicholson: Country Music Hall of Famers (and 17-time ACM Awards winners) Brooks & Dunn are up against Dan + Shay and Brothers Osborne (neither duo is a stranger to the winners circle) and two relative newcomers to the category, with indie duo Muscadine Bloodline and married duo Thelma & James. It’s possible that ACM voters may not feel the latter two nominees have spurred enough momentum in the mainstream market over the past year, and the only category veteran to release a project in the past year was Brothers Osborne with a 10-year anniversary edition of their album Pawn Shop. It’s likely that B&D could add another win in this category.

Winner: Brooks & Dunn

Nominees:

[Awarded to artist(s)/producer(s)/record Company–label(s)]

Ain’t In It For My Health – Zach Top; Producer: Carson Chamberlain; Record Company-Label: Leo33

Cherry Valley – Carter Faith; Producer: Tofer Brown; Record Company-Label: Gatsby Records / MCA

Don’t Mind If I Do (Deluxe) – Riley Green; Producers: Dann Huff, Michael Knox; Record Company-Label: Nashville Harbor Records & Entertainment

I’m The Problem – Morgan Wallen; Producers: Joey Moi, Charlie Handsome, Jacob Durrett; Record Company-Label: Big Loud Records

Parker McCollum – Parker McCollum; Producers: Frank Liddell, Eric Masse; Record Company-Label: MCA

Newman: If you’re questioning if country music is producing vital new talent, no need to look any further than this category where three of the five nominees are celebrating their first nomination in this field. Wallen is the only previous nominee here, winning in 2022 for Dangerous: The Double Album. To be sure, as is always the case, the nominees benefitted from timing, given that Lainey Wilson, Chris Stapleton and Miranda Lambert tend to win when they are nominated and none released albums in the eligibility period. Each one of these is outstanding in its own way. Wallen’s towers over the others in terms of consumption, but on the other end of the spectrum, it’s gratifying to see Faith’s album, which earned a spot near the top of many Best of 2025 lists, garner Faith a nomination.  (For what it’s worth, four of the albums ended up on Billboard’s list of top 10 country albums of 2025). Still, it feels like the wind is behind Top and his neo-traditionalist style. 

Winner: Ain’t In It For My Health 

Nicholson: Wallen’s titan project is far and away the biggest-seller of this year’s platter of nominees, though each of the competitors has also earned solid sales, or critical and/or fan acclaim. Given the album’s juggernaut success, it’s likely Wallen’s album will take home the honor.

Winner: I’m The Problem

[Awarded to songwriter(s)/publisher(s)/artist(s)]

“A Song To Sing” – Miranda Lambert & Chris Stapleton; Songwriters: Chris Stapleton, Miranda Lambert, Jenee Fleenor, Jesse Frasure; Publishers: I Wrote These Songs; Pink Dog Publishing; Songs for the Munch Music; Songs of Influence; Sony/ATV Tree Publishing; Warner-Tamerlane Publishing Corp

“Am I Okay?” – Megan Moroney; Songwriters: Megan Moroney, Luke Laird, Jessie Jo Dillon; Publishers: Big Ass Pile of Dimes Music; Big Music Machine

“Choosin’ Texas” – Ella Langley; Songwriters: Ella Langley, Luke Dick, Miranda Lambert, Joybeth Taylor; Publishers: Bada Bing & Bada Langley Publishing; Little Louder Songs; Sony Music Publishing

“I Never Lie” – Zach Top; Songwriters: Zach Top, Carson Chamberlain, Tim Nichols; Publishers: Music and Magazine Publishing; Rio Bravo Music Inc; Sony/ATV Tree Publishing; Too Broke to Quit Music; Zach Top Music

“Somewhere Over Laredo” – Lainey Wilson; Songwriters: Lainey Wilson, Trannie Anderson, Dallas Wilson, Andy Albert, Harold Arlen & Yip Harburg; Publishers: Concord Sounds; Dtown Boogie Music; Emi Feist Catalog Inc; Songs of Riser House; Songs of Wild Cat Well Music; Sony/ATV Countryside; Story Farmer; Tacklebox Music Publishing

Newman: Each one of these songs showed a new or different facet of the performer. Additionally, the performers are also the songwriters in all nominees, which is not always the case. If Wilson’s “Somewhere Over Laredo” wins, the songwriters of 1939’s The Wizard of Oz’s “Somewhere Over the Rainbow” will become ACM Award winners since Wilson’s song very lightly interpolates the classic, which is just a wacky notion. Lambert has two chances here as songwriter/performer on “A Song to Sing” and Lambert’s “Choosin’ Texas,” which she co-wrote. “Choosin’ Texas” has become a phenomenon and seems impossible to beat. 

Winner: “Choosin’ Texas”

Nicholson: Each of these songs found the artist challenging themselves artistically, whether that’s the sultry ’70s vibe of the Stapleton/Lambert collab “A Song to Sing,” Moroney trading the scathing romantic takedowns of her debut album for the optimism of the title track to her sophomore project, or Wilson wrapping in melody and other elements from the classic “Somewhere Over The Rainbow” into her hit “Somewhere Over Laredo.” Fans immediately took to Top’s “I Never Lie,” as they did with Langley’s “Choosin’ Texas.” But given the enduring power of Langley’s smash hit, “Choosin’ Texas” seems primed for the winner’s circle.

Winner: “Choosin’ Texas”

[Awarded to Artist(s)/Producer(s)/Record Company–Label(s)]

“6 Months Later” – Megan Moroney; Producer: Kristian Bush; Record Company-Label: Sony Music Nashville / Columbia Records

“Choosin’ Texas” – Ella Langley; Producers: Ella Langley, Miranda Lambert, Ben West; Record Company-Label: SAWGOD / Columbia Records

“I Never Lie” – Zach Top; Producer: Carson Chamberlain; Record Company-Label: Leo33

“Somewhere Over Laredo” – Lainey Wilson; Producer: Jay Joyce; Record Company-Label: BBR Music Group / BMG Nashville / Broken Bow Records

“The Fall” – Cody Johnson; Producer: Trent Willmon; Record Company-Label: CoJo Music / Warner Records Nashville

Newman: Three songs nominated for song of the year repeat here, showing how much voters thought of the tunes as both artistic statements and commercial achievements. “The Fall” carries the most emotional heft here with its “The Dance”-type message, but all of the songs kept fans tuned in to their radio (or other preferred listening device). Still, it just feels like Langley is unstoppable.

Winner: “Choosin’ Texas”

Nicholson: “Choosin’ Texas” has been a runaway hit this year, making history and entrenching itself at the top of the Hot 100. Though every song in this category has seen commercial success, Langley seems to have this category wrapped up.

Winner: “Choosin’ Texas”