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The NBA playoffs can produce thrilling moments, but they aren't necessarily known for upsets. That doesn't mean major surprises are impossible.
An 8-seed knocking off a 1-seed is rare, which may be putting it mildly. On some occasions, it's happened partly due to injuries. On others, it's come as a complete shock. It just doesn't happen often.
After a few unpredictable runs in recent years, however, one has to wonder whether 8-seeds might have more chances to pull off some stunners in the years ahead.
Here's a look at the history of 8-seeds beating 1-seeds in the NBA playoffs.
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How many times has an 8 seed beat a 1 seed in NBA playoffs?
Six 8-seeds have won a playoff series against a 1-seed. The last to do so was the Miami Heat in 2023, when Jimmy Butler and co. knocked off the top-seeded Milwaukee Bucks to start a run no one saw coming.
Why is it such a rare occurrence? Unlike college basketball, the seven-game series significantly reduces surprise outcomes. Winning a game or two as an 8-seed is nothing out of the ordinary. Winning four times in a span of seven games, without home-court advantage, against a team that finished with the best record in the conference is enormously difficult, even in the event of injuries.
Here's a complete look at each time an 8-seed beat a 1-seed in a playoff series.
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8 seeds to beat a 1 seed
| Year | 8 seed | 1 seed | Series result | Winning coach |
| 1994 | Nuggets (42-40) | Sonics (63-19) | 3-2 | Dan Issel |
| 1999 | Knicks (27-23) | Heat (33-17) | 3-2 | Jeff Van Gundy |
| 2007 | Warriors (42-40) | Mavericks (67-15) | 4-2 | Don Nelson |
| 2011 | Grizzlies (46-36) | Spurs (61-21) | 4-2 | Lionel Hollins |
| 2012 | 76ers (35-31) | Bulls (50-16) | 4-2 | Doug Collins |
| 2023 | Heat (44-38) | Bucks (58-24) | 4-1 | Erik Spoelstra |
1994: Nuggets over Sonics
The Nuggets became the first 8-seed to win a playoff series when they knocked off the 63-win Sonics despite finishing 21 games behind Seattle. Denver won a best-of-five series in five games, storming back from a 2-0 series deficit to stun Seattle.
The Nuggets would put up an impressive fight in the second round as well before losing to the Utah Jazz in seven games.
1999: Knicks over Heat
The Knicks' win over the Heat was a surprise in 1999, but it wasn't a total stunner. New York only finished six games behind Miami in a lockout-shortened season and had beaten the Heat as a 7-seed a year earlier.
Still, the series win was the start of a historic run. After a narrow 78-77 victory over the Heat in Game 5, the Knicks went on to sweep the Hawks, defeat the Pacers and become the first 8-seed in NBA history to reach the NBA Finals. Their run ended in the Finals without an injured Patrick Ewing, as the Spurs won the title in five games.
2007: Warriors over Mavericks
The "We Believe" Warriors were one of the greatest stories in NBA history, as they had to battle just to make the playoffs after starting the season 26-35. After climbing to the 8-seed in the West, a Baron Davis-led Golden State team stunned the 67-win Mavericks in six games after Dallas reached the NBA Finals a year prior.
After jumping out to a 3-1 series lead, the Warriors fell in Game 5 but left no doubt with a 25-point home win in Game 6. Golden State would only win one more playoff game, falling to the Jazz in five games in the second round.
2011: Grizzlies over Spurs
The Grizzlies were a particularly strong 8-seed with 46 wins when they knocked off the Spurs in 2011, but San Antonio's early exit in six games was still a shock under Gregg Popovich.
Memphis pieced together a series win much the way the Spurs did, relying on defense and a collection of players, rather than one dominant star, to get the job done. The Grizzlies would push the Thunder to seven games in the next round before coming up short of a Western Conference Finals appearance.
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2012: 76ers over Bulls
The Heat were still the kings of the East, but the Bulls looked like a serious threat to keep Miami out of the NBA Finals until reigning MVP Derrick Rose tore his ACL in Game 1 of the first round against the 76ers. The Bulls held on to win that game, but they lost the next four and couldn't recover offensively.
Philadelphia, after finishing four games over .500 in a lockout-shortened season, pushed the Celtics to seven games in the next round before coming up short on the road.
2023: Heat over Bucks
The Heat are the only 8-seed to hold a 1-seed to just one win in a playoff series, as they made quick work of the Bucks in 2023. Jimmy Butler averaged a ridiculous 37.6 points per game in the series, while Giannis Antetokounmpo missed two games due to injury and didn't look like his dominant self when on the floor.
The series win was the sparkplug for a remarkable Heat run, as Miami went all the way to the NBA Finals before losing to the Nuggets in five games.
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Has an 8 seed ever won an NBA championship?
An 8-seed has never won an NBA championship, despite two reaching the NBA Finals.
The 1994-95 Houston Rockets are the lowest-seeded team to win the NBA Finals, as they were a 6-seed at 47-35 before finding their groove and rolling to a second consecutive title led by Hakeem Olajuwon.
8 seeds to reach NBA Finals
Only two 8-seeds have reached the NBA Finals: the 1999 Knicks and 2023 Heat.
| Year | Team (record) | Finals result | Coach |
| 1999 | Knicks (27-23) | Spurs 4, Knicks 1 | Jeff Van Gundy |
| 2023 | Heat (44-38) | Nuggets 4, Heat 1 | Erik Spoelstra |
The Knicks and Heat both lost in five games, with New York missing an injured Patrick Ewing against the Spurs and Miami just no match for Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets.
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