76ers' LeBron James projected to have shocking career-low not seen in 24 years

Only one name comes to mind when longevity is talked about in the NBA - LeBron James. As he approaches the final years of his career, fans still expect a great deal of greatness and excellence from one of the greatest players of all time. However, there is a specific statistical category where he is most likely to be subpar. ESPN projected there would be a career-low year for him in one major aspect of the game, the first in 24 years. What could it be?

76ers' James projected to hit career-low points

When one thinks of LeBron James, the first record that comes to mind is his insane career total of 43,440 points. He usurped Kareem Abdul-Jabbar in the all-time record books to secure this feat and has run away with it ever since. The idea that someone could steal this record from him seems unlikely, too. To the same degree, his stint with the 76ers will mark his 24th season in the NBA. This means that he will be slowing down in major statistical categories.

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The downtick everyone is looking at? James' points per game. ESPN even projects that the 76ers star will only be able to register a season average that's less than 20 points per game.

If the projection holds, this will mark the least amount of points James has averaged in a season. Notably, he has never scored fewer than 20 points in a season, and the 2026-27 season will likely be the first time he fails to reach that mark. Previously, his career-low in average for a season was 20.9 points. This stat line has appeared only twice in his 23-year run in the league: his last year with the Los Angeles Lakers in 2025-26 and his first season in the league with the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2003-04.

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Let's look at the correlation between James' Per 36 minutes and his true points-per-game averages to see whether this bold projection has any merit. (Numbers in bold are projections)

So, why is James likely to surpass this projection by ESPN? It starts with looking at the trend in both his Per 36 and regular-season points per game. To estimate his regular-season average for 2026-27, we can multiply his Per 36 Points projection by his 33.1 average minutes from last season, then divide by 36. When the 76ers star's projected raw values are plugged in and if his scoring trend holds, he will still average about 21.1 points per game. This is still well above ESPN's projection, assuming he gets the same playing time.

Obviously, the biggest determinant in whether James can clap back statistically is whether Coach Nick Nurse gives him the touches and minutes to produce the same output. Having to share the ball with Joel Embiid, Tyrese Maxey, V.J. Edgecombe, and Jaylen Brown means the data is still volatile. James will have to morph his play style around the other 76ers stars, and that will determine whether he truly hits a career-low.

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Regardless, James taking a backseat and letting the other 76ers stars do the primary work is precisely why he chose this free-agency destination. He can compete for a fifth Larry O'Brien trophy without carrying the weight of whether they succeed, unlike his stints with the Los Angeles Lakers and Cleveland Cavaliers. Even then, he might still surpass expectations, and all these bold predictions may be more wrong than ever once he pops off for the season.