2026 NL Cy Young odds, prediction: Will Paul Skenes repeat?

It’s simply Paul Skenes’ world and the rest of the National League is living in it, according to oddsmakers. 

Now heading into his third MLB season, Skenes is the +220 favorite at BetMGM to win NL Cy Young, reflecting a 31.3 percent implied probability.

That’s just about on par with his price in prediction markets as he carries a 30 percent chance at Kalshi to claim the honors. 

Skenes’ first two seasons in the bigs have been a meteoric rise to stardom: He won NL Rookie of the Year in 2024 then followed that as the unanimous NL Cy Young winner in 2025, starting for the National League in back-to-back All-Star Games.  

The Pittsburgh Pirates ace was never really contested for the award last year, opening as a 4/1 favorite before spinning a 1.97 ERA in 32 starts and 187 ⅔ innings with 216 strikeouts.

He became the first unanimous winner since Sandy Alcántara in 2022. 

Skenes projected a xwOBA and xERA in the top three percent and finished tied for eighth overall in WAR at 6.5.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who was third in NL Cy Young voting last season, is the second favorite +550 odds. 

Yamamoto’s stock bumped after pitching masterfully in the postseason, going 5-1 with a 1.45 ERA in 37 ⅓ innings and being named the World Series MVP for the Dodgers.

The Dodgers’ Yoshinobu Yamamoto. AP

The 25-year-old right hander brings immense durability and a deep arsenal, including a devastating splitter and a high-spin “rainbow” curveball, to the mound.

Yamamoto ranked within Statcast’s top five percentile in both xwOBA and xERA last season. 

Christopher Sanchez is third on the oddsboard with a price of 7/1.

Sanchez garnered all 30 second-place votes last season after tossing 200-plus innings for the first time in his career. The Phillies’ southpaw, known for his commanding sinker and changeup, is one of the game’s best at inducing groundballs, ranking within Statcast’s top four percentile in 2025. 

The 2024 NL Cy Young winner Chris Sale checks in at 11/1 odds, with Giants strikeout artist Logan Webb at 17/1.

2026 NL Cy Young odds

Zack Wheeler is the only other pitcher to be listed at odds under 20/1.

The Phillies’ veteran has two second-place finishes for NL Cy Young in 2021 and 2024 and leapfrogged Skenes as the betting favorite last year until a season-ending injury in August. 

It’s really tough to fade Skenes. He’s so dominant that I believe he is still worth the investment right now. 

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But if you’re looking for value, Logan Webb is where I’d place my stock.

Webb, 29, finished within the top six of Cy Young voting in three straight seasons. The reigning NL Golden Glove winner led all of MLB with 205 innings and chalked up a career-high 224 strikeouts. That made him the first Giant to lead the National League in both categories since 1944. 

He throws a one-two punch with his sinker and changeup that is renowned for limiting home runs (0.61 HR/9) and eliciting high groundball rates. 

San Francisco Giants pitcher Logan Webb reacts after striking out Los Angeles Dodgers’ Trea Turner during the sixth inning of Game 1 of a baseball National League Division Series Friday, Oct. 8, 2021, in San Francisco. AP

Webb’s command on the edges has also made for elite walk rates in two of his last three seasons. He walked only two hitters per nine innings last year — good for the top nine percentile of MLB. 

With the Giants’ win total sitting at 80.5 after a horrible 2025, any steps forward this season would have to hinge on Webb — and that kind of anchorage in a rotation draws voters. 

THE PLAY: Logan Webb to Win NL Cy Young (+1700, BetMGM)

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He primarily focuses on picks that reflect market value while tracking trends to mitigate risk.