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The curse of next year's quarterback class has dominated draft cycles before they began. The 2026 NFL Draft was supposed to be incredible, headlined by wunderkind Arch Manning, the dynamic LaNorris Sellers, and Heisman favorites like Garrett Nussmeier and Cade Klubnik.
None of those players will be first-round picks. Two of them are going back to school, and they aren't alone. Even the late-rising Dante Moore returned to Oregon instead of accepting his fate as a top-five pick.
The 2026 NFL Draft's quarterback class is bad, and while that presents an issue for teams behind the Las Vegas Raiders atop the board, there are still worthy dart throws later on.
2026 NFL Draft quarterback rankings
1. Fernando Mendoza, Indiana
Mendoza's Heisman campaign speaks for itself. He was the best quarterback in the country, checking the necessary boxes for measurables and production.
Mendoza is excellent pre-snap, with above-average arm strength, excellent accuracy, and a little more mobility than he's given credit for. With that said, he isn't quite as safe as the game-manager moniker suggests. Mendoza operated an RPO-heavy offense and looked his worst when pressured. His pocket navigation frequently resembled Sam Darnold, even if the rest of his game looks like Dak Prescott.
That won't stop the Raiders from drafting him first overall. Mendoza entered the year with late-Round 1 stock and left skepticism in the dust. He's a perfectly fine No. 1 pick, and his character makes the Raiders' decision even easier.
2. Ty Simpson, Alabama
Simpson was stupendous in October, but the rest of the season tells a different story. He struggled down the stretch, and after mounting an excellent comeback in the College Football Playoff against Oklahoma, sputtered before leaving the Rose Bowl with an injury.
Simpson isn't the biggest prospect. He isn't the fastest, nor the most accurate. He's a one-year starter who wasn't overly effective or consistent in that lone season.
Each of those factors can keep Simpson out of Round 1. But as a Day 2 pick, Simpson's processing and ability to operate under pressure will convince some team to fall in love. If the latter is a profile-defining trait, his path to playing time becomes clear. In the event he was running hot on unsustainable plays, well ... there's a reason second-round quarterbacks don't work out too often.
3. Trinidad Chambliss, Mississippi
Barring a successful appeal, Chambliss will be suiting up on Sundays next season. Given how far off the radar he began this season, that's an incredible accomplishment.
Chambliss has starter-level decision-making with a knack for creating splash plays out of structure. Both his arm strength and athleticism are above-average, and his feel for ball placement is among the best traits in this entire class. He rose to the occasion in the College Football Playoff, too.
MORE: Trinidad Chambliss landing spots: Where will mock drafts project Mississippi QB?
However, Chambliss has a handful of yellow-to-red flags keeping him out of Round 1. He has just one year of high-level college football to his name, and it came in the same offense that dampened Jaxson Dart's draft stock. Chambliss is going to check in at under 6'0" at the Combine, and I'm not confident he surpasses 200 pounds, either.
Given the questions over the middle of the field, transitioning into a new offense, and being an older prospect without the true benefits of Power 4 experience, Chambliss profiles more as a fringe starter at the end of Day 2 than a slam-dunk top-50 pick.
4. Garrett Nussmeier, LSU
Nussmeier and Mendoza began the year with nearly identical late-first-round grades on my board. Mendoza just hoisted a championship trophy. Nussmeier got hurt, got benched (for part of one game), and saw his head coach fired midseason.
It was a sorry platform season for Nussmeier, whose struggles thrust skepticism onto his reputation as a polished processor. His path to starting in the NFL is by keeping the train on the tracks, but his mistakes turned irresponsible in 2025. Even so, Nussmeier's out-of-structure flashes exceed the expectations of his physical tools and he is very good as a pre-snap operator.
His stock has justifiably fallen, but there's a world in which his rookie season goes better than 2025.
5. Cole Payton, North Dakota State
Payton's placement among these rankings is both an indictment of this quarterback class and a tribute to the success he's had at NDSU. Analytically, he compares favorably to his small-school predecessors in Trey Lance, Easton Stick, and Carson Wentz.
There's something to be said about being the best player on the field in every single game, even against soft competition. Payton made the most of it, generating 29 touchdowns and nearly 3,500 yards from scrimmage in 2025.
Payton is physical, fast, and accurate to all levels of the field. Yet, the stark transition, both schematically and in level of competition, makes him an incredibly high-variance prospect. He reminds me of former second-round pick Will Levis, and it wouldn't be surprising to see him rise after the Senior Bowl.
6. Sawyer Robertson, Baylor
Robertson represents the dividing line between potential starters and high-level backups in this class; the Baylor quarterback projects entirely like a second-string passer.
Robertson has impressive physical tools and 1,000 pass attempts to his name. The biggest detractor in his game is scattershot accuracy that is simply hard to trust on a down-to-down basis. You can't build an offense missing layups.
His intangibles are decent, showcasing a reliable ability to avoid sacks and get the ball out quickly. Still, the ball is in harm's way too frequently, and his effectiveness under pressure is a concern. His ability to mitigate those weaknesses could define his early-career role.
7. Cade Klubnik, Clemson
Klubnik's first-round hype dissipated quickly when Clemson's season fell apart. Part of that is "toolflation" and our collective urge to exaggerate average traits. Perhaps a bigger piece of the puzzle is that Klubnik was expected to take a step forward to make good on the Round 1 hype. Instead, he looked like a less comfortable, less efficient version of himself.
Klubnik never had outlier physical tools, and in 2025, his mobility didn't stand out, either. That makes his work from the pocket even more important, and he ultimately struggled to put many high-level throws on film.
The pedigree and flashes from his 2024 campaign render him draftable, but there's little reason for Klubnik to start games as a rookie. He -- and the rest of the passers on this list -- are comfortably backup options.
8. Drew Allar, Penn State
Allar bet on himself by returning to Happy Valley instead of becoming a likely top-50 pick in last year's NFL Draft. It didn't work out well for Allar. Penn State fell short of every expectation, and despite being armed with star recruits on both sides of the ball, Allar never looked comfortable for long stretches.
The straight-line speed and enticing arm strength remain, but a season-ending leg injury will prevent Allar from taking full advantage of the pre-draft process. He's still a raw processor, and if the injury limits his twitchiness, he'll have a harder time making the out-of-structure plays that generated some of his most impressive highlights.
Allar is a dart throw, and one that has become harder to make before the middle of Day 3. Despite the high ceiling, Allar's median can no longer be considered that of a starting-caliber quarterback.
9. Carson Beck, Miami
Beck began the year with a fifth-round grade on my board and a comparison to Daniel Jones (pre-Indianapolis breakout). I feel comfortable with both assessments holding steady, even after his trip to the national championship.
MORE: NFL Draft winners and losers from the College Football Playoff national championship
His interception ended Miami's season. It would be irrational to connect the dots between one bad throw and a mid-Day 3 grade. However, Beck is still feeling the effects of his elbow surgery, and I'm not confident in the starter-level velocity returning.
Beck is a game manager, and he struggled to meet elite competition at their level in 2025. He offers little as a rusher, might not have adequate arm talent, and has too many processing woes to trust as a Day 1 starter.
10. Athan Kaliakmanis, Rutgers
Kaliakmanis is the best Rutgers quarterback in recent memory. He's likely their first draft pick under center in some time, too.
Kaliakmanis is a prototypical backup. He's steady, can operate the quick game, and his experience lends itself to exciting flashes of nuance. When he's at his best, he's dialed in downfield and operating with the kind of upside that one hopes catches fire if called upon during a playoff hunt.
There are real issues under pressure, and Kaliakmanis' absurdly high pressure-to-sack rate is a red flag. Even so, he is a big-game hunter who doesn't carry a ton of turnover risk. That should be enough to get him drafted.
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