2026 Mountain West odds, prediction: Hawaii will emerge from new-look conference

Change is the norm in college football these days, but even by those standards, what happened to the Mountain West is above and beyond.

Five schools departed the conference after the 2025 season, including headliner Boise State.

The Blue Turf is now part of the landscape in the Pac-12, but at least the MWC was able to make ends meet by attracting North Dakota State, along with UTEP and Northern Illinois.

With five teams out and three teams in, including one from the FCS ranks, the approach to handicapping the race in the Mountain West is also completely different for this season.

It used to come down to Boise vs. the field, but it’s now wide open.

Two teams, UNLV and New Mexico, are projected to be the class of the competition, with some sportsbooks having the former as a marginal favorite, and others favoring the latter.

Either way, the difference between the two teams is negligible.

Of the two, UNLV figures to be the trendier pick after Dan Mullen led the Rebels to 10 wins in his first season under the headset in Sin City.

Mullen bolstered his ranks by bringing in former five-star recruit Jackson Arnold after underwhelming stops at Oklahoma and Auburn. Arnold’s athleticism and pizzazz have never been in question, but he’s been unable to turn his talent into success at the college level just yet.

Dan Mullen leads a strong UNLV team. Getty Images

Mullen and his coaching staff do have a habit of turning raw signal-calling talent into winning players, which has plenty of folks picking UNLV to represent the Group of 6 in the College Football Playoff.

Down in Albuquerque, the Lobos are coming off a remarkable turnaround in 2025. Pegged as the worst team in the conference before Week 1, Jackson Eck guided New Mexico to its first nine-win campaign since 2016. It was New Mexico’s second winning season since 2007.

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Eck’s formula is familiar. He was a standout coach at the FCS level, got a gig in the FBS and brought his best players from Idaho with him. Plenty of them return for his sophomore season in the Land of Enchantment.

But this isn’t a two-horse race. Three other teams, North Dakota State, Hawaii, and Air Force, are under +600 to win the conference at DraftKings, well ahead of the chasing pack, making this a haves-vs-have-nots situation.

A lot would have to go right for any of San Jose State (18/1), Wyoming (20/1), Nevada (30/1), Northern Illinois (60/1) and/or UTEP (80/1) to make noise.

Micah Alejado #12 of the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors runs the ball during the first half of the Sheraton Hawai’i Bowl against the California Golden Bears at the Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex in Honolulu, Hawaii, on Dec. 24, 2025. Getty Images

Best bet: Hawaii to win Mountain West (+480, DraftKings)

Timmy Chang’s vision in Honolulu seems to be paying off, and he’s got the perfect pilot to land this plane.

Not unlike his head coach during his playing days on The Island, quarterback Micah Alejado gives the Rainbow Warriors some serious punching power. The 5-foot-10 sophomore threw for 3,106 yards and 24 touchdowns as a redshirt freshman despite dealing with injuries for the majority of the campaign.

Perhaps that a byproduct of his smallish stature, but who knows where the ceiling is for Alejado in a healthy season?

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Hawaii’s schedule is always a bit wacky because the school is in the middle of the Pacific Ocean, but it’ll get to host UNLV, New Mexico, and North Dakota State, which is a big plus in a conference where the margins are thin.

There’s some serious momentum behind the favorites in this conference, but the steady build under Chang at Hawaii will pay off soon. I’m betting on it being this year.

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.