2026 college football predictions: Kansas State will win a wide open Big 12

When realignment hit college football, it seemed pretty clear that the Big 12 would be the Wild West of the Power 4. With Texas and Oklahoma out of the picture, there was not supposed to be a big dog in the conference, opening things up for chaos and carnage.

But things change faster than ever in college football these days, and it’s clear that Texas Tech is hell-bent on filling the void left by the Longhorns and Sooners.

The Red Raiders were one of the best teams in the nation in 2025, earning a bye into the second round of the College Football Playoff, but they fell flat against Oregon in the Orange Bowl.

Texas Tech has reloaded for the upcoming season, and the market has taken notice, installing them at -105 to win the Big 12 and making them one of two odds-on favorites (along with Miami in the ACC) to win their conference at DraftKings Sportsbook.

BYU (+550) and Utah (+650) are pegged as Tech’s biggest competition, while last year’s favorite, Kansas State (15/1), Houston (16/1), and Arizona (19/1), are the only other programs under 20/1.

Going by the odds, this one seems straightforward. Texas Tech will meet whoever comes out of the Holy War between Utah and BYU. Set it and forget it, right?

Not so fast.

Texas Tech has a red flag. And it’s a big one. We don’t know much about their quarterback. Joey McGuire recruited Brandon Sorsby to Lubbock, but he’s been disqualified due to a gambling scandal. That means Will Hammond, who missed most of last year with a torn ACL, will get the nod.

If McGuire was confident that Hammond would be good enough to pilot this team, why would he try and get Sorsby?

The Red Raiders may be good enough in all other areas to overcome mediocre QB play (they did it last year, after all), but that’s not the kind of profile I want to bet on when a team is in odds-on territory to win a notoriously chaotic conference.

Kansas State Wildcats head football coach Collin Klein fist bumps Willie Wildcat. (Peter Aiken) Peter Aiken-Imagn Images

The best bet: Kansas State (16/1, FanDuel)

There are a lot of things to like about Kansas State’s makeup, but in reality this bet comes down to a few core questions.

Is high-ceiling quarterback Avery Johnson going to button things up? And is former KSU signal-caller Collin Klein as good a fit as head coach as he looks on paper?

We won’t know the answer to either of those questions until the ball is kicked off, but the good news is that both fellas will get a real good shot at making good on their potential against this schedule.

Because of its size, one or two Big 12 teams win the scheduling lottery every year. Kansas State won it this time around.

The Wildcats don’t play Texas Tech, BYU, or Utah during the regular season, and they will host Houston (after a bye) and Arizona. It’s a cozy setup, and according to SP+, Kansas State projects to be favorites in every game but one (at TCU).

There is a platform here for Johnson and Klein to succeed. The schedule is kind, the incoming transfers fill some key holes, and the teams projected ahead of them have their own questions to answer.

But Kansas State isn’t the only team worth backing in the wild and crazy Big 12.

Oklahoma State head coach Eric Morris. USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

The long shot: Oklahoma State (29/1, DraftKings)

Saddle up, it’s going to be a fun season in Stillwater.

After a historically bad 2025 campaign cost longtime head coach (and cultural icon) Mike Gundy his job, Oklahoma State went big on the rebuild. And I love it.

Eric Morris will take over as head coach one season after he turned North Texas into college football’s version of the 1999 St. Louis Rams.

His version of Kurt Warner, Drew Mestemaker, is coming with him to Boone Pickens Stadium, as running back Caleb Hawkins, wide receivers Wyatt Young and Miles Coleman, and a couple of offensive linemen. There are others, including defensive coordinator Skyler Cassity, but you get the point.

Catch up on The Post’s college football betting predictions and previews for the 2026 season

• The Post’s college football betting roundtable: National champion, Heisman winners
• Arch Manning, Texas best bets: Back the Longhorns?
• Oregon prediction, odds, best bet: Fade Dante Moore, Ducks 2026 win total
• Notre Dame football odds, picks, predictions: Fighting Irish will reach championship heights
• Five bold predictions for the 2026 college football season

This season at Oklahoma State may look a lot like last season at North Texas. That’s good news.

Not only did North Texas have its best season ever in 2025, but they did it with jazz. The Mean Green (12-2) were the best offensive team in the country by yards per game (512.4), points per game (44.6), and SP+.

Mestemaker was sensational in tandem with Morris, throwing for 4,379 yards and 34 touchdowns as a freshman.

Turning around a big ship quickly ain’t easy on the open ocean, but we see it happen in college football more and more these days.

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.