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The 2025 NHL Entry Draft, which begins Friday night at the Peacock Theater in Los Angeles, has a distinct feel compared to recent iterations.
Not only is this projected to be a relatively thin class after the top five or six prospects, but there’s also been plenty of chatter that more teams than usual are looking to trade their way around the first round.
This has made setting the odds for the 2025 NHL Draft an even more difficult project than usual for bookmakers.
Unlike the NFL or NBA, the NHL Draft doesn’t receive as much media attention.
This makes news and insider information a bit more difficult to decipher, which, in turn, makes it trickier to set odds.
The one thing that everyone seems to agree on is that the New York Islanders will select Matthew Schaefer with the No. 1 overall pick.
Almost every sportsbook has taken down odds for the top selection, signaling that the draft really starts with the second selection, which belongs to the San Jose Sharks.
Dynamic centerman Michael Misa is the favorite to go No. 2, but there has been some smoke about San Jose swerving and picking Swedish pivot Anton Frondell.
Those rumors have caused Misa’s price to drop from -400 to -300 odds, while Frondell now sits at +225 to be picked second.
There is no value betting Misa to go No. 2 at that price, but I do believe the noise around Frondell and the Sharks is dubious and is intentionally being leaked to rattle teams behind them.
That could work in favor of bettors too, as all the chatter around Frondell and the Sharks has caused the market to assume that Frondell is a sure thing to be one of the first three players picked.
The problem with that assumption is that, after Schaefer and Misa, everybody seems to have a different opinion on who should be the No. 3 pick — let alone who actually will be selected by the Blackhawks (or someone else) at No. 3.
That makes for some great betting opportunities for the third, fourth and five selections.
Porter Martone is projected to be a top pick. NHLI via Getty Images2025 NHL Draft best bets
Porter Martone to go No. 3 overall (10/1, bet365)
Here’s something to keep in mind for this pick: The Blackhawks already have a No. 1 center in Connor Bedard, and Frank Nazar, selected 13th overall in 2022, looks like a legitimate second-line pivot.
That means the Blackhawks, more than other teams in the top five, are more likely to select a winger with their top pick.
Porter Martone is projected as the top winger in this class, and his physical style should blend perfectly with Bedard.
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James Hagens to go No. 4 overall (12/1, bet365)
There has been a lot of reporting that suggests that the Utah Mammoth are choosing between Caleb Desnoyers and Brady Martin, but I think there are two different pathways for Hagens to get picked in this spot.
The most likely of those scenarios is that Utah views Hagens as a better prospect than Desnoyers and Martin, which is in line with most prospect rankings.
The other scenario is that Utah trades this pick.
There’s no doubt the Islanders would be thrilled to land Hagens, a Long Island native, but there have been other teams connected to this pick, and Utah could be a willing partner given how desperate they are to make the playoffs next season.
Anton Frondell has been linked to the No. 2 overall pick at the 2025 NHL Entry Draft. NHLI via Getty ImagesAnton Frondell to go No. 5 overall (35/1, bet365)
I think there’s a chance that we see Frondell slide a bit, as it was only recently that his name truly started to pop as a potential top-two pick.
The noise around Frondell has caused the markets to overreact, which has opened up a great buying opportunity on him going No. 5 to Nashville, a team desperate for a top-end center.
Don’t forget, it was only a few weeks ago that Frondell was projected to go in this spot.
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
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