2025 Conn Smythe odds, predictions: The long-shot to back in NHL playoffs second round

The Hurricanes smothered the Capitals in Game 1. The final score was close, but the ice was tilted in Carolina’s favor all night.

The Canes outshot the Caps, 33-14, and registered 60 more shot attempts (94 to 34) in their overtime victory.

Tip your caps to the Hurricanes for a massive performance on the road but, at the same time, it is fair to remain a little skeptical about Carolina’s chances going forward.

As dominant as the Canes were Tuesday night, it was another performance where they had to work extremely hard to muster up barely enough offense to get a deserved victory.

This is not a new phenomenon with this team.

Carolina’s system is all about funneling everything towards the net and causing chaos, but that approach can backfire if the Canes don’t cash in on their chances.

The Rangers and Panthers know all about this from the previous two springs. 

Logan Thompson and the Capitals trail 1-0 in the series. Getty Images

The Canes played a near-flawless Game 1 and still needed overtime to win. That is a red flag when you’re being asked to lay -134 on the road. 

The Capitals remain the value side of this matchup and they’re being offered at tempting prices to win the series, but there’s a way to invest in a Washington comeback with much more upside.

Logan Thompson has been terrific in goal for Washington thus far. The former Golden Knight owns a .926 save percentage and leads the playoffs with a +7.7 Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx). 

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Thompson will face a ton of rubber in this series, so he’ll have every chance to pad his numbers and become the story if Washington comes back.

The goalie is currently being offered at 50/1 to win the Conn Smythe at bet365. That is a bargain.

The Play: Logan Thompson to win the Conn Smythe (50/1, bet365)

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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.